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market ^{2 3 4 5}

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agent based ^{2 3 4}

technical analysis ^{2 3 4}

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hedge fund ²

genetic programming

predictive modeling

Adaptive Modeler 0.99

Released:	2007-03-07
License:	Freeware
Publisher:	Altreva
Language:	English
Platform:	Windows
Requirements:	Microsoft .Net Framework 2.0, 512 MB Ram
Install:	No Install Support
Downloads:	339
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Publisher's Description:

Adaptive Modeler - Adaptive Modeler creates agent-based market simulation models for price forecasting of real world stocks, ETFs, currencies or other market traded securities. The agent-based model simulates a financial market consisting of thousands of traders (agents) whose trading rules evolve through genetic programming. The evolution of trading rules combined with market pricing dynamics drives the agent population to recognize and anticipate recurring price patterns while adapting to changing market behavior.

Adaptive Modeler offers an alternative approach to trading software. While most conventional trading software aims to optimize a single trading strategy by back-testing on historical data, Adaptive Modeler lets a multitude of trading strategies compete and evolve in real time in a market simulation model that runs parallel to a real world market. The collective behavior of this market model is the basis for price forecasts and trading signals.

Advantages:
- no curve fitting / overfitting of historical (training) data
- trading signals are based on multitude of trading strategies instead of only one or a few
- trading strategies are constantly adapting to market changes instead of being static
- puts user in charge of high level model evolution control instead of low level rule programming

Features:
- easy to use drag-and-drop user interface
- real-time charts and plots to visualize model evolution, behavior and performance
- user configurable genetic programming engine for trading rule creation
- supports custom quote intervals from 1 second to daily and longer
- Trading Simulator with hedge-fund style performance overview
- various return & risk indicators (alpha, beta, Sharpe ratio, VaR, MAR ratio, historical & Monte Carlo simulations, etc.)
- sub period returns and statistics
- data export function
- batch function
- includes User's Guide, context-sensitive help and samples

Latest Changes:

configurable trading rule creation, context-sensitive help, batch mode with GUI, best agents price as alternative forecast, improved pseudo random number generator, etc.

User License Agreement:

Altreva Adaptive Modeler

Version 0.99

NOTICE TO USERS: CAREFULLY READ THE FOLLOWING LEGAL AGREEMENT. USE OF THE SOFTWARE PROVIDED WITH THIS AGREEMENT (THE "SOFTWARE") CONSTITUTES YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF THESE TERMS. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE TO THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT, DO NOT INSTALL AND/OR USE THIS SOFTWARE. USER'S USE OF THIS SOFTWARE IS CONDITIONED UPON COMPLIANCE BY USER WITH THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT.

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Altreva Adaptive Modeler

Version 0.99

1. LICENSE GRANT. The author grants you a license to use one copy of the version of the SOFTWARE on one system. "You" means the company, entity or individual who were provided a copy of the SOFTWARE directly by the author with his consent. "Use" means storing, loading, installing, executing or displaying the SOFTWARE. You may not modify the SOFTWARE or disable any licensing or control features of the SOFTWARE except as an intended part of the SOFTWARE's programming features. This license is not exclusive and is not transferable to any other system, or to another organization or individual.

2. OWNERSHIP. The SOFTWARE is owned and copyrighted by the author, Jim Witkam. Your license confers no title or ownership in the SOFTWARE and should not be construed as a sale of any right in the SOFTWARE.

3. COPYRIGHT. The SOFTWARE is protected by copyright law and international treaty provisions. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of the SOFTWARE, or any portion of it, may result in severe civil and criminal penalties, and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under the law. You acknowledge that no title to the intellectual property in the SOFTWARE is transferred to you. You further acknowledge that title and full ownership rights to the SOFTWARE will remain the exclusive property of Jim Witkam and you will not acquire any rights to the SOFTWARE except as expressly set forth in this license.

4. REVERSE ENGINEERING. You agree that you will not attempt to reverse compile, modify, translate, or disassemble the SOFTWARE in whole or in part.

5. DISCLAIMERS

THE SOFTWARE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FILES ARE PROVIDED "AS IS" AND WITHOUT WARRANTIES AS TO PERFORMANCE AND WITHOUT ANY OTHER WARRANTIES WHETHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTY RIGHTS.

IN PARTICULAR, ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE SOFTWARE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE FOR TRADING OR INVESTMENT PURPOSES. COMMON SENSE DICTATES THAT NO TRADES, INVESTMENTS OR OTHER ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BASED ON THE DATA PROVIDED BY THE SOFTWARE WITHOUT CONSIDERING THESE TRADES, INVESTMENTS OR ACTIONS AND THEIR POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES AND ASSOCIATED RISKS AFTER CONSULTING INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOURCES AS WELL AS INDEPENDENT DECISION SUPPORTING METHODS. PAST PERFORMANCE OR RESULTS IMPLIED, SHOWN OR OTHERWISE DEMONSTRATED BY THE SOFTWARE CANNOT GUARANTEE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OR RESULTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE OR RESULTS. THE AUTHOR IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY INFORMATIONAL ERRORS, INCOMPLETENESS, OR DELAYS, OR FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN IN RELIANCE ON INFORMATION CONTAINED IN OR PROVIDED BY THE SOFTWARE, OR FOR ANY FINANCIAL LOSS RELATED TO THOSE ACTIONS. THE SOFTWARE DOES NOT VERIFY THE CORRECTNESS, VALIDITY OR COMPLETENESS OF IMPORTED QUOTES OR ANY OTHER IMPORTED DATA AND IN NO WAY ENDORSES THE VALIDITY OF SUCH DATA. THE SOFTWARE AND ITS PERFORMANCE MAY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY MARKET CONDITIONS, QUOTE DELAYS, SYSTEM PERFORMANCE AND OTHER FACTORS.

BY USING THE SOFTWARE THE USER ASSUMES THE ENTIRE RISK OF USING THE SOFTWARE. ANY LIABILITY OF THE AUTHOR WILL BE LIMITED EXCLUSIVELY TO PRODUCT REPLACEMENT OR REFUND OF PURCHASE PRICE.

6. SEVERABILITY. In the event of invalidity of any provision of this license, the parties agree that such invalidity shall not affect the validity of the remaining portions of this license.

7. NO LIABILITY FOR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHOR OR ITS SUPPLIERS BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ANY CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL OR INDIRECT DAMAGES OF ANY KIND ARISING OUT OF THE DELIVERY, PERFORMANCE OR USE OF THE SOFTWARE, EVEN IF THE AUTHOR HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. IN NO EVENT WILL THE AUTHOR’S LIABILITY FOR ANY CLAIM, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER THEORY OF LIABILITY, EXCEED THE LICENSE FEE PAID BY YOU, IF ANY.

8. ILLUSTRATIVE MENTIONING OF SECURITIES. Securities featuring in sample files, help, documentation or elsewhere in the SOFTWARE are for illustrative purposes only. The author may have positions in securities referenced herein, and may, as principal or agent, buy from or sell to clients.

9. TRADEMARKS. Altreva and Adaptive Modeler are trademarks of Jim Witkam.